Parameters of the 3-minute all-out test: Overestimation of competitive-cyclist time-trial performance in the severe-intensity domain

Purpose: To verify the accuracy of predicting performance in the severe-intensity domain by means of the end-test power output (EP) and the work performed above EP (WEP) obtained from a 3-min all-out test in competitive cyclists. Methods: Ten well-trained cyclists performed a ramp incremental test and a 3-min all-out familiarization test. Subsequently, they performed a 3-min all-out experimental test to obtain EP and WEP, and a 10-min time trial (TT). The actual 10-min TT mean power output was then compared with the power output predicted as: P = WEP/Tlim + EP, where Tlim corresponds to 600s. The ramp test peak power output (PPO) was compared with PPO predicted as: PPO=EP+√2WEP·S , where S represents the ramp slope (0.5W/s). Results: The actual (347 ± 30W) and predicted (376 ± 48W) 10-min TT mean power output were correlated (r=0.87; P=0.001) but significantly different (P<0.01). The coefficient of variation (CV) between the predicted and actual performance was 5.6 ± 4.4%. The error of prediction was positively correlated to EP (r=0.80; P=0.005) and negatively correlated to WEP (r=-0.71; P=0.021). No significant difference was found between the 10-min TT mean power output and EP (351 ± 53W). The actual (438 ± 30W) and predicted (472 ± 41W) ramp PPO were correlated (r=0.88; P<0.001) but significantly different (P<0.001). The CV between the predicted and actual PPO was 5.2 ± 3%. The error of prediction was positively correlated to EP (r=0.63;P=0.051). Conclusions: EP and WEP obtained from a 3-min all-out test overestimate severe-intensity performance in competitive cyclists.